IGAD adopts AI to improve weather forecasting

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In a bold move to improve weather forecasting in the region, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has launched the second phase of the Strengthening Early Warning Systems for Anticipatory Action (SEWAA) initiative.

This project, which leverages artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, aims to enhance early warning systems and mitigate the effects of extreme weather events in Uganda, Rwanda, and other IGAD member states.

Experts and stakeholders expressed their belief in the initiative, noting it will revolutionise meteorological predictions and response mechanisms.

During the launch event, Joselyn Bigirwa, head of mission – IGAD Uganda, underscored the initiative’s critical role in enhancing climate resilience in the region. (Courtesy photo)

Additionally, they said the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is actively promoting objective-based forecasting to ensure standardised, data-driven methods that minimise subjective interpretation.

They were speaking during the initiative launch on Monday, March 3, 2025, at Protea Hotel, Entebbe.

Strengthening early warning systems

According to Fetene Teshome, director general of the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI), AI-driven forecasting models will be instrumental in strengthening early warning systems.

"One of the attested adaptation mechanisms to extreme weather events is the establishment of a mature early warning system that serves the last-mile victims by utilising emerging sciences, including artificial intelligence," Teshome stated.

He emphasised the need for substantial resources to build hydro-meteorological observation and monitoring capabilities to enhance the accuracy and accessibility of short-range forecasts.

Teshome further encouraged national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs) to adopt AI-based initiatives like SEWAA, highlighting Ethiopia’s successful use of these models to generate precise short-range forecasts.

Expert views on SEWAA’s impact

During the launch event, Joselyn Bigirwa, head of mission – IGAD Uganda, underscored the initiative’s critical role in enhancing climate resilience in the region.

She noted that climate-induced disasters, such as droughts, floods, and extreme weather events, have worsened food security and economic development challenges.

"The urgency to shift from reactive responses to anticipatory action has never been greater. The SEWAA project is both timely and strategic, as it builds on existing early warning systems to ensure that climate information is not only available but also actionable," Bigirwa stated.

She emphasised the importance of policy frameworks in supporting effective climate action, calling for strong institutional coordination and financial investment in disaster risk reduction.

"By leveraging machine learning, advanced forecasting techniques, and improved data-sharing mechanisms, this project will enhance early warning capabilities, allowing governments, humanitarian agencies, and communities to act in advance of disasters, rather than reacting after the damage is done," she added.

Dr Ahmed Amdihun, programme manager for Disaster Risk Management (DRM) at ICPAC, speaking on behalf of Dr Abdi Fidar, officer in charge of IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), reiterated the need for collaboration in addressing climate risks. He pointed out that AI-based forecasting presents an opportunity to strengthen regional coordination in early warning systems.

"This initiative builds on the Anticipatory Action Roadmap and represents a scale-up from the first phase, which has been successfully implemented in Kenya and Ethiopia. By harnessing machine learning, we can improve forecast precision, extend lead times, and generate tailored early warnings, ultimately enabling faster and more effective proactive interventions," Amdihun said.

He highlighted how global producing centres such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are adopting AI-driven forecasts, signalling a new era in climate prediction.

The SEWAA initiative, he noted, aligns with this global trend by enhancing forecasting capabilities and enabling timely interventions.

Technical innovations in AI-based forecasting

Masilin Gudoshava, climate modelling expert at ICPAC, provided technical insights into the AI-based forecasting models.

She explained that the project will focus on short-term (daily) and medium-range (up to 14 days) forecasts, primarily targeting rainfall predictions.

"We are trying to utilise artificial intelligence and machine learning to predict weather. This will enable us to provide highly accurate short-term and medium-range forecasts, which are critical for early warning and disaster preparedness," Gudoshava said.

She noted that the project, which runs until December 2026, requires each participating country to contribute $100,000 (over sh366,978,610).

Dr Bob Alex, assistant commissioner in the Meteorological Department at the Ministry of Water and Environment, underscored the importance of sustained investment in AI-driven climate resilience solutions.

He said that as the IGAD region continues to grapple with climate-related challenges, the SEWAA initiative represents a significant step forward in enhancing resilience and preparedness.

"Integrating AI and machine learning into weather forecasting will not only improve the accuracy of predictions but also enable timely and effective interventions," he added.

The project has already demonstrated promising results in Ethiopia and Kenya, and its expansion to Uganda and Rwanda signals a commitment to scaling up best practices across the region, according to the IGAD head of mission for Uganda, Joselyn Bigirwa.

However, for SEWAA to achieve its full potential, stakeholders stressed the need to ensure sustained funding, institutional coordination, and inclusive climate communication strategies that reach vulnerable populations.