70% MPs might not survive 2026 polls — Report

THE HOUSE

KAMPALA - A storm is brewing in Uganda’s political skies — and if predictions hold, the 12th Parliament might look dramatically different. As Paul Kiwuuwa writes, the wave of change is expected to wash out nearly 70% of the current Members of Parliament.

In a series of candid interviews with New Vision, several MPs and scholars voiced concerns that many of their colleagues may not return after the 2026 general elections. 

As of March 29, this year, the 11th Parliament has 556 members, including 353 Constituency Representatives, 146 Women Representatives and others from special interest groups, such as the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF), youth, persons with disabilities, workers and older persons, not forgetting 27 ex-officio members. 

History already offers a cautionary tale. The Afrobarometre Survey of August 2022 revealed that of the 457 MPs in the 10th Parliament, only 107 made it back. 

A whopping 319 were voted out, while 31 didn’t even try — either retiring or eyeing different positions. 

One of Uganda’s most respected political historians, Prof. Mwambutsya Ndebesa, believes a similar fate awaits the current crop. 

“I expect a 70% attrition rate for the legislators in the 12th Parliament,” he said. 

“It is a distortion of the voters that an MP is a service delivery provider, but not a lawmaker. No MP will ever satisfy the voters’ expectations — the MPS’ salaries cannot satisfy the constituency demands,” Ndebesa added. 

His point? 

MPs are caught in a system where they are judged, not by the laws they pass, but by the boreholes they sink and the roads they repair. 

And for ruling party MPs, the journey gets bumpier. Even before the general election, many must survive the cut-throat National Resistance Movement (NRM) primaries, which are notorious for political blood-letting.

“Voters in Uganda do not consider national issues when voting for someone,” Ndebesa added. 

This kind of emotional appeal resonates deeply with voters, but it doesn’t erase the bigger issue: expectations. 

“Voters care about domestic, local issues in their constituencies,” he noted. 

“And that leads to a higher attrition rate. The expectations are compounded by President Yoweri Museveni’s statements, urging legislators to oversee material development, like roads, bridges and water systems,” Ndebesa added.

Unrealistic promises 

If you thought the road to the 12th Parliament would be smooth for Uganda’s MPs, analysts said, you need to think again. Reality is setting in — and it’s hitting hard.

Ephraim Biraaro, the Buhweju West MP (NRM), summed it up bluntly: “Being optimistic, out of 556 MPs, 40% may not return. Being pessimistic? 70% won’t make it back.”

Why such a grim forecast? 

Biraaro blames the sky-high promises of ambitious newcomers, who demonise incumbents just to win votes. 

“They escalate the voters’ expectations. They make unrealistic pledges — and when they can’t deliver, they are booted out. Even opposition MPs promise to take over the entire state. When they fail, voters show them he door,” he said. Biraaro also laments the growing belief that MPs are walking and talking government service centres. 

“When voters don’t see roads fixed or medicines stocked in health centres, they brand the MP a failure,” he said. 

That sentiment is echoed by Robert Kasolo, Iki-Iki county MP (NRM), who pulled no punches: “The attrition rate in the 12th Parliament will go beyond 70%. We have not worked for the people. We have wasted time on unclear things. This Parliament is riddled with scandals and has one of the most tainted images in Uganda’s history. The abuse of taxpayers’ money is outright corruption.” 

Kasolo also believes independents will be an endangered species in the next Parliament. 

“Political parties are working hard to ensure their candidates run under party banners. We will see fewer independents,” Kasolo said.

But that optimism isn’t shared by everyone. Dr Chris Baryomunsi, the ICT minister, who also represents Kinkizi East (NRM) — wishes that all incumbent NRM legislators return in 2026, even in opposition strongholds. 

“I qualify this — even constituencies currently held by opposition MPs will be taken over by NRM,” he said. 

Still, Baryomunsi admits voter expectations are often misplaced: “Voters judge MPs on things that aren’t even in their mandate — like paying school fees or funding local weddings and burials. But an MP’s actual role is in Parliament, in Kampala, representing national issues.” 

He added that even when MPs lobby for national budgets that trickle down to local governments, the credit often goes to councillors and local leaders. 

“Voters think the MP has done nothing—when, in fact, the MP did the heavy lifting behind the scenes,” he said. 

On the question of independents, Baryomunsi said the issue stems from chaos within internal party primaries. 

“There’s a need to strengthen the institutional framework of how we conduct primaries, especially within NRM. When people feel cheated in party elections, they reject the flag bearers and vote for independents out of anger,” he said. 

On his part, Peter Okeyo, MP for Bukholi Island (NRM), reflected on just how brutal things can get: “In the 10th Parliament, the attrition rate hit 80%. That could happen again. It depends on the commercialisation of politics, performance both in Parliament and in the constituency and the Government’s failure to fulfil pledges. Voters assume MPs are responsible for government services.” 

And then there’s the voice of calm and realism — Abdulhu Byakatonda (Workers MP — independent). He believes the situation isn’t beyond redemption. 

“I think we can reduce that turnover. The narrative can change. Right now, maybe 40% won’t return,” he said. 

Byakatonda’s advice? Talk to your people: “It doesn’t cost you anything to call your constituents and say, ‘We agreed on this, but this is what I have managed to do. Can you forgive me for the rest?’ They might say, ‘This man is a man of substance."

The voter revenge 

So, when MPs fail to deliver on development demands, voters lose patience. The ballot becomes their only way to reset. One MP, who has already decided to jump ship, is Michael Kamugisha Timuzigu, the Kajara county legislator (NRM). 

“I will not contest in the 2026 general elections,” he said, estimating that over 40 other MPs may also bow out voluntarily. Still, for many, the decision won’t be theirs to make.
 
“Out of the 556 MPs, I suspect over 250 are likely to lose. Approximately 300 will make it back to the 12th Parliament. At most, 50 legislators will not contest due to planned exits, stiff competition, or drowning in debts. Some of them have even appealed to President Yoweri Museveni for financial help,” Timuzigu said. 

He also pointed to a new wave of challengers — people who have been rendered jobless by government’s Rationalisation of Public Expenditure (RAPEX) initiative. 

“Competitors, who have retired from government parastatals and public services, have increased. Those affected by RAPEX now see Parliament as the only better option,” he said.

Life after politics

Byakatonda, drawing from his human resources background, shared some career wisdom that many MPs need to hear: “When I issue appointment letters to new employees, I tell them, plan your exit on the very first day. 

The same applies to Parliament,” he said. “Some MPS sell off everything just to win another term. But no one is born an MP. Invest wisely. Leave something to survive on,” he added. 

Tororo Municipality MP Yeri Apollo Ofwono (NRM) is also bracing for a stormier 12th Parliament. 

“The 12th Parliament is going to be more complicated than the 11th. Some MPs are already switching political parties and there are allegations of corruption. It is not looking good,” he said. 

Ofwono points to “political wave elections” as the real game-changer — when entire regions shift allegiance, sweeping even the most popular MPs out with the tide. 
“Sometimes voters reject parties and choose the person. Even if someone’s rigged out of primaries, they can win as independents,” he said. 

Dr Tanga Odoi, chairperson of the NRM electoral commission, said: “Politics is dynamic, not static. You can’t expect to be retained by default.” To Odoi, high MP turnover is a symptom of deeper issues. 

“It means legislators aren’t connecting with voters or failing to explain government programmes clearly. They must link up with the people consistently,” he said. 

Uganda People’s Congress party president Jimmy Akena, who is also the Lira city East MP, said: “Attrition will be high. Voters have too many expectations and are quick to criticise. They latch onto a few shortcomings and run with them.” 

On her part, Aisha Nalule Kabanda, the Butambala district Woman MP of the National Unity Platform (NUP), said: “Over 70% of MPs might not return. The 11th Parliament has suffered terrible public relations. And we haven’t done enough to fix our image.” 

This is the point, Kilak South MP Gilbert Olanya of the Forum for Democratic Change agreed with, noting that: “Attrition could be above 70%. Voters think MPs are supposed to buy ambulances, fix roads, pay school fees and attend burials. They don’t know our actual role is legislation and representation.” 

“The money MPs get is meagre, compared to what voters demand. Some MPs get excited when they receive their salaries — say, sh30m for the first time and start overspending. They open businesses abroad, live lavishly. But when they return to the constituency, the voters are waiting with questions and rejection.” 

For Mukono Municipality MP Betty Nambooze (NUP), the high MP turnover is no surprise, it is the will of the people at work. 

“I expect many new MPs in the 12th Parliament, because voters want change. They believe newcomers will deliver better on their expectations,” she said.