Kawempe North: Why it was a do-or-die race

In Kampala, where the political winds of Uganda often shift unpredictably, analysts said, a Hollywood-like contest dotted the Kawempe North electoral process on Thursday, March 13.

Opposition National Unity Platform candidate Elias Nalukoola won the parliamentary seat defeating 9 other contenders.

Nalukoola garnered 17,764 votes, while his closest rival, Faridah Nambi from the NRM, got 8,593 votes.

Sadat Mukiibi of Forum for Democratic Change garnered 239 votes, Henry Kasacca Mubiru of the Democratic Party scored 100 votes and Ismail Musiitwa from People’s Progressive Party came in with 39 votes.

Independent contenders, Muhammad Lusswa Luwemba polled 240 votes, Hanifah Karadi Murewa scored 381 votes, Muhamood Mutazindwa scored 186 votes, Moses Nsereko 32 votes and Stanley Edward Maitum Engena, 22 votes.

The byelection, analysts added, was more than just a local race; it was a microcosm of Uganda’s broader political dynamics.

For the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), it was a much needed boost and a sign that the party could still compete in urban areas.

Yet, it was a wake-up call for the opposition, highlighting what analysts described as the need for unity and strategic planning ahead of the 2026 general election.

Butambala County MP Muhammad Muwanga Kivumbi, who is also the National Unity Platform (NUP) deputy president for Buganda region, said the opposition benefited from the stronghold base in the area and the protest vote largely fuelled by security brutality against voters and journalists.

Kivumbi added that he byelection was a high-stakes contest not only because of its immediate implications for the political landscape in Kampala, but also due to the broader strategic calculations ahead of the 2026 polls.

Kampala Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago ditched a fellow People’s Front for Freedom (PFF) candidate, Muhamood Mutazindwa and roundly supported Nalukoola.

By leaving Mutazindwa of the Dr Kizza Besigye Katonga-based PFF, analysts said Lukwago signalled a possible alliance between the Besigye group and NUP’s Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine, ahead of the 2026 general polls.

Internal contradictions

From the start, political analyst Charles Rwomushana said the NRM contender, Faridah Nambi, suffered an overbearing internal contradiction within the ruling NRM party, directly putting her on the political guillotine.

The onslaught on the media, Rwomushana added, also complicated the electoral process, adding that the security operation in Kawempe North was a “betrayal” of Moses Kigongo, the NRM vice chairperson. Kigongo is Nambi’s father.

“She embraced a civil door-to-door campaign, but security brought in the Joint Anti-Terrorism Task Force to beat her opponent on nomination day. This automatically made the candidate for Kyagulanyi get an edge over that lady,” Rwomushana said.

The presence of security in the electoral process also puzzled the NRM rank and file, with the party’s electoral commission head, Dr Tanda Odoi, saying: “Security is decampaigning our NRM candidate?”

Since this term started in 2021, NRM has so far won seven of 12 byelections.

2026 dynamics

If one is to use the Kawempe North byelection as a litmus test of what portends for 2026, veteran journalist John Kakande said: “The NRM people must be very happy that they haven’t been wiped out even in these very urban areas.”

With NRM party primaries set for July, Godfrey Kiwanda, the NRM Buganda region vice-chairperson and a member of the Central Executive Committee, a top organ of the ruling party, argues that despite the roadblocks, Nambi’s performance is a testament to the fact that the NRM support base in Kampala and Buganda remains strong.

“We are very grateful to the people of Kawempe North and we are sure that we are taking over Kampala and the entire central region,” he said.

However, Ofwono Opondo, the Uganda Media Centre executive director, said: “NRM hasn’t won that seat in a long time. My understanding was that NRM was going to participate mainly to show cause that it was a good party.”

Ofwono added that the presence of the army must be explained by the Police, by telling people what triggered the invitation of the army into a civil exercise — elections.

“I think what we should demand from the Police, especially as the lead agency in law enforcement, is: What happened? From the footage, I could see military personnel in uniform, well-marked military vehicles. That [election] is a civil operation, and therefore, the Police takes the lead and all other security agencies are supposed to follow what the Police is saying. Therefore, we should ask the Police to account [for] how the army people came?” Ofwono said.

Prof. Mwambutsya Ndebesa, a political historian based at Makerere University, said the episodes in this byelection offer a glimpse of what the 2026 elections might look like.

“It is a rehearsal of what is to come, especially in urban centres where the population is more conscious of their rights and the security forces plus the regime will have to respond and push back against that consciousness and in the process, we shall have heat without light,” he said.

Ndebesa also urged security officers to abandon what he described as “this trajectory of brutalising citizens” and embrace “patriotism” to enable democracy to flourish.

“The security forces who claim to be patriots cannot love their country without loving its people,” Ndebesa said.

Crispin Kaheru, a seasoned election observer and a member of Uganda Human Rights Commission, said byelections, especially in urban constituencies with a history of strong opposition support, often serve as political temperature checks, and Kawempe North was no exception.

“The contest will serve as a barometer for party organisation, voter sentiment and strategic positioning ahead of 2026,” he said.

The state minister for youth, Balaam Barugahara, who played a pivotal role in Nambi’s campaign, said: “I wish you well, despite concerns about the election’s legitimacy. To all President Yoweri Museveni and Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s patriotic youth in Kawempe, let’s unite and work towards reclaiming the seat in 2026. We won’t tolerate chaos in future elections. For now, I extend congratulations in the spirit of national unity. Our candidate (Nambi) was cheated.”

Kyagulanyi said Nalukoola’s victory is a testament to resilience.

Voter turnout

Journalist John Kakande said the heavy security deployment affected the voter turnout in a predominantly opposition-leaning area.

On Thursday, there were about 27,000 voters, compared to the over 40,000 who participated in the 2021 general election in Kawempe North. In 2021, Muhammed Ssegirinya garnered 41,197 votes to clinch the seat.

However, Kakande argues that for the National Resistance Movement’s Faridah Nambi to get over 8,000 voters is a sign that the ruling party is making inroads into the opposition base.

“I think the opposition has to struggle to reduce that support of the ruling party if they are to make any headway,” he said.