NUP issues ultimatum to rebel MPs as NRM digs in

KAMPALA - The National Unity Platform (NUP) is at a crossroads; torn between internal rebellion and an ambitious mission to dominate Buganda in 2026. But as the party struggles to rein in dissenters, the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) is quietly sharpening its knives, ready to reclaim lost ground, write Joseph Batte and Brian Mayanja.

For two years, the National Unity Platform (NUP) has been a house divided — accusations of corruption, power struggles and simmering tensions boiling over. 

Last year, a faction led by former Leader of the Opposition Mathias Mpuuga broke ranks, forming the Democratic Alliance (DA), a group critics say was built as a refuge for those disillusioned with NUP president Robert Kyagulanyi. 

Now, the clock is ticking. Butambala County MP Muwanga Kivumbi (NUP’s deputy president for Buganda), has issued a stern warning: DA members have 30 days to apologise or face the party’s wrath. 

“Those who wronged the party should apologise and we move on,” Muwanga declared at a tense meeting of NUP aspirants at the party’s headquarters in Kavule. The message was clear — fall in line or get left behind.

Battle for Buganda  

NUP dreams big: 100 parliamentary seats in Buganda, a region with 105 constituencies. In 2021, they seized 55. The NRM got 31. But the ruling party isn’t surrendering without a fight. 

Last month, NRM strategists vowed to claw back every lost seat, turning NUP’s strongholds — Mubende, Kasanda, Sembabule and Masaka — into battlegrounds. 

Yet, as NUP scrambles to mobilise, cracks are showing. Muwanga’s thinly veiled attacks on DA-aligned MPs — Mpuuga, Michael Kakembo (Entebbe Municipality), Abedi Bwanika (Kimaanya-Kabonera), Juliet Nakabuye Kakande (Masaka City Woman MP) and Joyce Bagala (Mityana Woman MP) — have only deepened the rift. 

To NUP’s leadership, their constituencies are now “empty”— symbols of betrayal rather than strength. Also on the list of rebel MPs is Bashir Kazibwe Mbaziira (Kawempe South), among others, whom Muwanga Kivumbi feared to publicly announce. 

The question looms: Can NUP heal its divisions in time to fend off an NRM resurgence? Or will internal strife hand Buganda back to the ruling party on a silver platter? One thing is certain — the battle for Uganda’s political soul is just beginning.

Rebel MPs hit back 

NUP’s leadership may be cracking the whip, but the rebels aren’t backing down — in fact, they are gearing up for war. 

The party’s defiant MPs — Bwanika, Kakande and Bagala — have made it clear: they owe no apologies to NUP. “We were elected by the people of Masaka city, not by NUP,” Bwanika fired back, his words dripping with defiance. 

“Muwanga should remember that even his Butambala seat isn’t safe. This fight could cost him everything,” he added. And this isn’t just about survival — it’s about expansion. 

The rebel faction plans to storm Buganda and beyond, rallying grassroots support for what they call “capable leaders” ahead of 2026. Their message? NUP doesn’t own the opposition. 

Kakande, in particular, described Kyagulanyi and his three sidekicks — Muwanga, Lewis Rubongoya (secretary general) and Joel Ssenyonyi (Nakawa West MP and Leader of Opposition) — as “opportunists” who abandoned the “struggle” for selfish gains.

MP Mathias Mpuuga

Divided opposition 

NUP’s go-it-alone strategy is raising eyebrows. According to Kira Municipality MP Ibrahim Nganda Ssemujju, unlike Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) in its heyday — which built alliances with Democratic Party (DP), JEEMA and Conservative Party (CP), even conceding seats to allies, such as Erias Lukwago — NUP seems intent on bulldosing its way to dominance. 

“You can’t be a leader of Muwanga’s experience and then, radio stations and the media quote you saying ‘your main focus is to consolidate here (Buganda),” Ssemujju recently said during a political talkshow on a local television, adding that instead of building alliances, NUP and Muwanga have narrowed the struggle to one region. 

At the same political talkshow, ex-Aruu County MP Odonga Otto added that Muwanga’s political mentality might be viewed by voters from other areas as “Kabaka Yekka party regrouping in NUP.” 

Although in subsequent interviews Muwanga has remained unapologetic about his ‘Buganda consolidation’ move and 30-day-ultimatum to rebel MPs, analysts warn that it could backfire. 

“Infighting will leave NUP exposed,” John Kakande, a veteran journalist and political analyst, said. “Take Ssemujju — if NUP politicians attack him, will his allies elsewhere ever work with them?” 

The cracks are already showing. When Kyagulanyi was recently pressed on Kampala’s flooding crisis, his answer was telling: “Give NUP all city positions and we’ll fix it.” 

A thinly veiled snub to Lukwago, the current Lord Mayor, whom NUP is now challenging with Ronald Balimwezo,’ he added. According to Moses Bigirwa, an ex-NUP activist, Muwanga Kivumbi is acting like a hired political mercenary.

“Muwanga is being used by Kyagulanyi to kick-out seasoned MPs from NUP. However, he should know that when he finishes the dirty political work, he will also be kicked out,” Bigirwa said. 

Yet for Muwanga, it is loyalty or exit. “We gave them one month to make up their minds. You can’t be a member of a party and never attend meetings or party activities. 
This is basic common sense. If you form an independent political formation with ideals not consistent with your mother party, you have essentially deserted. This is not my decision. It is a party decision,” he said.

MP Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda

Enter NRM 

With NUP tangled in internal squabbles, NRM is seizing the moment. A full-scale mobilisation dubbed “Buganda for Museveni” is underway, spearheaded by heavyweights like: Haruna Kasolo (state minister for microfinance), Amos Lugoloobi (state minister for planning), Rose Namayanja (NRM deputy secretary general), Godfrey Kiwanda (vice-chairperson for Buganda on NRM’s Central Executive Committee) and Kiryowa Kiwanuka (Attorney General), among others. 

Their mission? To claw back every lost constituency, rally by rally — from Kiboga to Kyotera, with Sembabule next in their sights. The proponents of Buganda for Museveni campaign argue that for decades, Buganda was NRM’s impregnable fortress. 

This was Museveni’s bush war birthplace, where criticising the Movement once bordered on heresy. 

Through the 90s, the region stood as the bedrock of NRM support — its people believing in the promise of prosperity and stability. 

The cracks first appeared in 2001 when Dr Kizza Besigye — Museveni’s own bush war doctor — turned rebel. 

He wasn’t alone. Buganda’s political royalty — Nasser Ntege Sebaggala, Dr Paul Kawanga Semogerere, Sam Njuba — rallied behind him in what became the first tremor of dissent. 

Then in 2021, Kyangulanyi and the NUP wave turned into another storm — sweeping even seasoned politicians in the region, such as Ruth Nankabirwa, Dr John Muyingo, Amelia Kyambadde, Judith Nabakooba, Syda Bbumba and former vice-president, Edward Kiwanuka Ssekandi, among others. 

“While NUP swept much of Buganda in 2021, NRM held strongholds like Rakai, Lyantonde and Nakasongola. So, in 2026, NRM will register gains in Kyankwanzi, Kiboga and parts of Greater Masaka, with Butambala becoming a battleground constituency. 

Even parts of Kampala — Makindye, Nakawa, Central — could swing back,” Butambala resident district commissioner (RDC) Ahmed Kateregga Musaazi, observed. 
Facing extinction in Uganda’s political heartland, NRM launched an autopsy. 

Their diagnosis? Land wrangles, fishing sector collapse, corruption, the unresolved Buganda question, youth unemployment and their own internal rot had poisoned the well. 

Now the charm offensive is in overdrive. At a Kyotera rally, Namayanja promised that: “NRM rightful glory in Buganda will be restored.” 

On his part, Lugoloobi struck a confessional tone: “We messed up. But redemption is possible — we are listening now.” However, Kiryowa Kiwanuka is blunt about NRM’s mission: “We are not just campaigning — we are auditing ourselves.” 

As part of the ruling party’s push to reclaim Buganda, ministers and MPs are fanning out across the region, scrutinising whether manifesto promises from 2021 have been fulfilled — and if not, why. “Where we have delivered, we expect votes in 2026,” Kiryowa told New Vision. 

“Where we haven’t, we owe people an explanation,” he added. In Buvuma, where he made his first rally appearance, Kiryowa touted a sh94b compensation package for palm oil farmers — a move meant to soothe long-standing grievances. 

“Our job now is to show people that Museveni keeps his word. Some promises take time, but they are being worked on,” he added. The ruling party, Kiryowa said, is banking on a simple equation: deliver results, win back trust. “Every district has its challenges,” he said. 

“But we’re ready to face them,” he added. This is the same point political analyst Charles Rwomushana emphasised, noting that: “In 2021, Museveni and Kyagulanyi both got nearly one million votes in Buganda. If voter apathy hits like it manifested in Kawempe North by-elections, NRM could sneak through.” 

However, Rwomushana added: “There’s just one problem — the NRM no longer has its legendary regional power brokers. Where are today’s James Wapakhabulos or Ruhakana Rugundas?” Yet one thing remains certain — the voters will decide in 2026.