Trump trade tariffs: Time for Africa to redesign

By Simon Mulongo 

The Trump administration’s move to impose 125% tariffs on Chinese imports this week, while granting a temporary reprieve to a handful of allies, is more than trade brinkmanship. 

It marks a decisive break from the rules-based global order, nudging the world towards a fragmented, interest-driven era. For Africa — and particularly Uganda and the East African Community (EAC), this presents both risk and opportunity. 

We are seeing a reversion to economic nationalism, where trade is wielded as a political weapon, not a mutual benefit. 

This strategy echoes the ideas championed state-supported industrial growth over free-market dogma. The thinking? Protect domestic industries, gain leverage in trade negotiations and reset global supply chains in your own image. 

But this disruption comes at a cost. Bloomberg Economics reports that US-China trade has shrunk by 38.4% since 2022, while the International Monetary Fund revised global growth forecasts down to 2.5%, from 3.3% six months earlier. 

Commodity exporters — like many African economies — feel the knock-on effects through lower demand, reduced investment and tighter credit. 

The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects (March 2025) forecasts a 15% decline in average commodity prices in the coming months. For nations dependent on copper, oil, coffee, or tea, this means reduced fiscal revenue, balance-of-payments pressure, and weakened currencies.

In this shifting landscape, China’s role in Africa is evolving. Long caricatured as a resource-hungry lender, China is now Africa’s largest trading partner, with $296b in two-way trade in 2024 — compared to just $71b with the US. 

More significantly, Chinese foreign direct investment now exceeds $80b, focused on industrial parks, logistics corridors and digital infrastructure. 

At the 2024 Beijing Forum on China– Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit, China committed $51b in new African investment, targeting sectors aligned with Africa’s own development priorities. 

Simon Mulongo

The launch of Silk Road e-commerce hubs in cities like Nairobi and Kigali signals a push toward long-term trade integration. 

While debt sustainability concerns remain real, the so-called "debt trap" narrative is overstated. 

Through the G20 Common Framework, China has played a constructive role in easing repayment terms for countries like Zambia and Ethiopia, avoiding the harsh structural adjustments common in IMF-led bailouts. 

The EAC, with its 300 million consumers, stands at a strategic crossroads. As US importers seek alternatives to China, Kenya is emerging as a beneficiary in textiles and horticulture, enjoying lower tariffs under African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and a temporary 10% US baseline.

However, supply-side weaknesses persist. 

The region faces high transport costs, fragmented infrastructure, and non-tariff barriers that limit its ability to fully exploit new market opportunities. 

Currency depreciation is further complicating matters. This April, the Kenyan and Tanzanian shillings fell by 5.4% and 4.7% respectively against the US dollar, pushing up the cost of imported goods and dollar-denominated debt.

Uganda sits on a knife’s edge. 

The Uganda Bureau of Statistics recorded a 7.1% spike in industrial input costs in Q1 2025, largely due to exchange rate losses and global supply chain disruptions. 

The shilling now trades at sh3,690 per dollar, making foreign debt — over 50% of which is dollar-denominated — far more expensive. The finance ministry projects sh1.3 trillion in additional debt servicing costs this fiscal year alone. 

Yet Uganda also has strategic levers. Chinese-backed projects like the Kampala Industrial and Business Park and the Mombasa–Kampala logistics corridor are laying the groundwork for industrial growth and export readiness. 

With AGOA’s future uncertain post-2025, Uganda should aggressively pursue new bilateral trade instruments — with China, the EU and Gulf states — and enhance AfCFTA value chain participation. Digital trade is another frontier. 

With the right platforms and payment systems, Ugandan SMEs can bypass traditional bottlenecks and access global markets via e-commerce and fintech solutions — areas where China’s infrastructure and mobile ecosystems can play a crucial enabling role. 

Trump’s tariffs, while seemingly chaotic, have clarified one truth: the world is moving toward multipolar trade blocs, fluid alliances and strategic self-interest. 

For Africa, this is not a time to retreat — it is a time to redesign. The fragility of old trade models is now exposed. The real opportunity lies in building regional resilience, investing in infrastructure, enforcing fair competition and developing value-added exports — the anthem of President Yoweri Museveni. 

Africa is not a passive spectator in this global realignment. With foresight, it can shape its own destiny — not as a pawn, but as a co-architect of a new, more inclusive trade order. 

It is a fact that, “creative destruction” lies at the heart of economic change. The current upheaval is indeed destructive — but also deeply generative. 

For those who seize the moment, this could be the beginning of Africa’s next ascent.

The writer is a governance and security consultant, EMANS Frontiers Limited.