Is the opposition on the deathbed in Acholi?

President Yoweri Museveni recently held a meeting with a group of MPs from the Acholi sub-region subscribing to two opposition political parties; namely the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and the People’s Progressive Party (PPP).

The group was reportedly led by Okin P.P Ojara (Chua West, FDC).

Others included the former leader of the opposition in parliament, Betty Aol Ocan (Gulu Woman, FDC), Santa Okot (Aruu North, PPP), Ojara Martin Mapenduzi (Bardege-Layibi, Independent) and Anthony Akol (Kilak North, FDC). Mapenduzi was initially an opposition-leaning Independent.

He served in the first National Unity Platform (NUP) shadow cabinet. He ditched the opposition and signed a memorandum of understanding with the National Resistance Movement (NRM) in June 2023. Akol recently declared he had joined the NRM.

It is unclear whether the rest of other FDC MPs in Acholi: Denis Oneka, Lucy Akello and Gilbert Olanya attended the meeting with President Museveni. However, Olanya reportedly attended an earlier meeting between the Acholi MPs and the state minister for internal affairs, Gen. David Muhoozi.

According to the reports, Okin, while presenting their memorandum to the President, stated: “We may belong to different political parties, but our focus is on fighting poverty and driving socio-economic transformation in Acholi.”

The meeting between the President and the opposition MPs from Acholi, coming less than a year to the next elections, is significant politically. It marks a major political change in the political dynamics in the Acholi sub-region and will impact the next presidential elections.

The Acholi sub-region was originally a stronghold of the opposition. The region voted for Paul Ssemogerere in the 1996 presidential election and subsequently became Blue with the emergence of FDC and Col. Kizza Besigye, to the extent that when Norbert Mao was chairperson of the Gulu district council, the district councillors were predominantly FDC.

The opposition to the NRM in Acholi, as well as in Lango and Teso, was understandable. UPC and its president Dr Apollo Milton Obote had significant support in these regions in the 1980s. Many top military commanders during Obote’s second regime were from Acholi. It was not surprising, therefore, that armed resistance to the NRM administration started in Acholi.

The political dynamics in Acholi have steadily changed over the years in favour of the NRM, partly as a result of the end of the insurgency. The NRM now has the biggest number of MPs in Acholi, with the FDC as the main opposition party in the sub-region.

Though the DP president general comes from the sub-region, his party has only two MPs – Geoffrey Charles Okello (Nwoya East) and Peter Okot (Tochi). The only other opposition MP from the sub-region is Santa Okot (Aruu North) of the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) founded by veteran politician and former minister Jaberi Bidandi Ssali.

Given the fact that Mao’s DP is now working with the NRM, the latest development is an indicator that Acholi sub-region may completely fall to the NRM in the next general elections. Note that the leading opposition party — NUP — does not hold a single parliamentary seat in the subregion and does not appear to have a strategy to capture the area.

This development, in my view, is largely a consequence of the upheavals in the FDC. The viability of the FDC party, led by Eng. Patrick Oboi Amuliat, is seriously in question. The FDC breakaway faction, led by Erias Lukwago, appears to have lost political dynamism due to the arrest and incarceration of its kingpin Col. Kizza Besigye, who is currently held in Luzira Prison on treason charges.

Thus the FDC rank and file find themselves in a dilemma, how to manoeuvre and avoid annihilation during the forthcoming elections.

The opposition group in Acholi seems to believe that capitulating to the NRM is the best option for political survival. Whether this will work remains to be seen. But there has been a precedent.

The UPC leaders in Lango, including party president Jimmy Akena, a few years ago adopted a similar strategy and avoided total annihilation.

The writer is a veteran journalist